Publications by Patricia Taft

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Conflict Bulletin: Delta State - August 2015

Published August 19, 2015 | By Nate Haken and Patricia Taft*

Although the 2009 Amnesty Program was instrumental in reducing violence and fatalities associated with militancy, since 2012 Delta has been the most violent Niger Delta state as measured by conflict fatalities per-capita. Conflict risk incidents in Delta State during this period included gang violence, criminality, vigilante/mob justice, communal violence, and political violence. There were a number of abductions, some targeting political figures, their family members, or oil workers. On October 25, 2014 local elections were held for the first time since the chairmen were dismissed in 2011. In April 2015, Ifeanyi Okowa of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) won the gubernatorial election to replace outgoing Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan (PDP).

Conflict Bulletin: Imo State - August 2015

Published August 14, 2015 | By Nate Haken and Patricia Taft*

Imo state has a population of approximately 3.9 million people, according to the 2006 census. The population is predominantly Igbo (98%). The capital city of Owerri is the largest in the state. Imo is made up of 27 Local Government Areas (LGAs). Natural resources include palm oil, mahogany, crude oil, and natural gas. Owelle Rochas Okorocha has been the governor of Imo since May 2011. In 2011, he left the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to run for governor with the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).

Fragile States Index 2015: The Book

Published June 17, 2015 | By J.J. Messner, Nate Haken, et al.

The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

Crumbling Roads and a Health Crisis: West Africa Confronts Ebola

Published June 17, 2015 | By Patricia Taft

In December 2013 in a tiny village in Guinea, a young child fell ill and died of a disease that would come to define much of the news in 2014. The Ebola virus, previously only known in Central and East Africa, laid ravage to large swaths of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, three countries that had just begun to recover after years of civil war. Indeed, Liberia and Sierra Leone were featured in last year’s Fragile States Index as two success stories, climbing back, slowly but steadily, from the abyss. Last year however laid bare where years of both national and international attention (or lack of attention, as in the case of Guinea) failed to address some of a country’s most basic needs: a functioning public health system and passable roads.

A Tough Neighborhood: Kenya Weathers Regional Instability

Published June 17, 2015 | By Patricia Taft and Kendall Lawrence

Long considered an anchor of relative stability in East Africa, Kenya is considered to be one of the strongest emerging markets in Africa. Despite significant pressures, their economy continues impressive growth, with the World Bank projecting continued gains over the next few years. Kenya has also made significant gains in the technology sector, leading the region – and in some cases, the continent – in the development and deployment of mobile banking and telecommunications platforms.

A Reform Agenda: Cuba Comes in from the Cold

Published June 17, 2015 | By Patricia Taft and Kendall Lawrence

At the end of 2014, Cuba suddenly became news again when U.S. President Obama announced a plan to normalize relations with the country after nearly fifty years of political and economic isolation. But even before the announcement, Cuba was already on track to be one of the most improved countries in the 2014 Fragile States Index. In areas like the provision of Public Services, Cuba’s score has worsened slightly over ten years although all other indicators have improved. In the areas of Human Rights and State Legitimacy, there was a worsening over the past year as reports alleged extrajudicial abuse by public security forces and the continued repression of political opposition. Despite these negative marks, the trend over the past decade continues to be positive.

Conflict Bulletin: Rivers State - May 2015

Published May 8, 2015 | By Nate Haken and Patricia Taft*

Among the largest of the oil-producing Nigerian states, Rivers had been at the heart of the Niger Delta militancy until 2009. Now the state remains beset with a different array of political, communal, and criminal issues, including cult and gang-related violence, protests, and kidnappings. Rivers was a pivotal state in the 2015 general elections and experienced elevated levels of election-related tension and violence throughout 2014.

Conflict Bulletin: Ondo State - May 2015

Published May 8, 2015 | By Nate Haken and Patricia Taft*

Ondo state has a population of approximately 3.44 million according to the most recent census (2006). The majority are of Yoruba descent, with a sizable minority of those from Ijaw subgroups, particularly along the coast. Ondo derives most of its revenue from the production of cocoa, palm oil, rubber, lumber, and cassava. Approximately 65% of the labor force is employed in the agrarian sector. The state is also rich in oil and minerals. Violence in Ondo has historically been relatively low in comparison to the other Niger Delta states according to Nigeria Watch data. After the 2012 gubernatorial election, in which Olusegun Mimiko was re-elected, the losing party raised concerns about alleged election irregularities and intimidation. The next gubernatorial elections are slated for 2016.

Conflict Bulletin: Imo State - May 2015

Published May 8, 2015 | By Nate Haken and Patricia Taft*

Imo state has a population of approximately 3.9 million people, according to the 2006 census. The population is predominantly Igbo (98%). The capital city of Owerri is the largest in the state. Imo is made up of 27 Local Government Areas (LGAs). Natural resources include palm oil, mahogany, crude oil, and natural gas. Owelle Rochas Okorocha has been the governor of Imo since May 2011. In 2011, he left the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to run for governor with the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).

Conflict Bulletin: Edo State - May 2015

Published May 8, 2015 | By Nate Haken and Patricia Taft*

Landlocked between Ondo, Kogi and Delta States, Edo is home to about 3.2 million people (2006 census), predominantly of Edo, Bini, Owan, Esan, and Afemai background. Edo’s economy centers on agriculture, including food crops such as yams, cassava, rice or maize and cash crops such as rubber, palm oil, cotton, cocoa and timber. The State’s capital, Benin City, is the center of Nigeria’s rubber industry. Mineral resources include granite, limestone, marble, lignite, crude oil, gold, and kaolin clay. Edo’s state governor, Adams Aliyu Oshiomhole, assumed office in November 2008 after winning an appeal in the 2007 elections, which had initially declared his rival Oserheimen Osunbor governor. In July 2012, Oshiomhole was reelected for a second term in a landslide victory.

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