Fragile States Index 2016: The Book

Published June 27, 2016 | By J.J. Messner, Nate Haken, et al.

The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

Europe’s Refugee Crisis Underscores Global Interconnectedness

Published June 27, 2016 | By J.J. Messner

As the civil war in Syria enters its sixth year, its effects continue to wreak havoc not only on its own war-ravaged population, but also upon countries farther afield. In the 2016 Fragile States Index, Syria was again one of the most worsened countries year-on-year, catapulting them into the list of the top ten most fragile countries on the planet. To date, thousands of Syrians have made treacherous and uncertain journeys across land and sea to the relative safety of Europe, and it is likely that many more will continue to do so. The countries of Europe – particularly those situated on a trajectory between Turkey and Germany and Scandinavia – have found themselves overwhelmed by the influx, and have responded to these pressures with attempts to close previously open borders. At the same time, ultra-nationalistic, right-wing, anti-immigrant political parties in multiple countries across the continent have taken the opportunity to politically manipulate the crisis and further destabilize domestic politics.

Underlying Concerns Create a Worrying Outlook Beyond Brexit

Published June 24, 2016 | By J. J. Messner

As the dust settles on the historic Brexit vote and its effects, it is easy to focus on the near term, visible side effects. Even in the unlikely event that Britain manages to negotiate an association deal that is as good as being in the European Union, it will now no longer have a voice in that Union. There are also murmurings of a second independence referendum that could see Scotland, which voted overwhelmingly to “Remain,” finally leave the United Kingdom and rejoin the European Union, thereby ripping Britain apart. Add to that the ramifications for Northern Ireland, or the renewed Spanish questioning of the sovereignty of Gibraltar. The immediate crash of the Pound and the FTSE forebode financial turmoil to come as trade between the UK and its neighbors is threatened with a significantly less liberal trading regime, which even in a best case scenario will see transfer costs increase. Further, there will be much uncertainty regarding the future ability of millions of British citizens to live and work easily across 27 other countries – or that of millions of Europeans who attend British universities or staff its hospitality, trade, and financial sectors.

The World in 2015: Country-by-Country Trend Analysis

Published June 20, 2015

The annual findings of the Fragile States Index (FSI) are informative, but really do represent only a single snapshot in time. It is significantly more useful to observe a country's performance over time. That is why the Fund for Peace has assembled trend analysis charts for all 178 countries, listed below. These charts include analysis on overall country trend; indicator trends, year-on-year and long-term; and comparable and relative indicator performance.

Fragile States Index 2015: The Book

Published June 17, 2015 | By J.J. Messner, Nate Haken, et al.

The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

Press Release: Fragile States Index 2015 Released

Published June 17, 2015 | News from The Fund for Peace

WASHINGTON, D.C. – As the Fund for Peace releases its eleventh annual 2015 Fragile States Index, the spiral of state fragility, and the cycles of insecurity and poverty that come along with it, are exceedingly hard to break. South Sudan has topped the Fragile States Index for the second year in succession, as the country continues to be wracked by internal conflict, fractious politics, and poverty. South Sudan is joined at the most fragile end of the Index by countries that have long struggled, such as Somalia, Central African Republic, Sudan, and D.R. Congo. However, a lack of change at the most fragile end of the Index -- not to mention a similar lack of change at the sustainable end of the Index, where primarily Scandinavian countries continue to excel -- belies the significant movement of a number of countries over the past year and indeed the past decade.

Springtime for Castro and Cuba; Winter for Ukraine and Libya

Published June 17, 2015 | By J.J. Messner and Hannah Blyth

South Sudan has topped the Fragile States Index for the second year in succession, as the country continues to be wracked by internal conflict, fractious politics, and poverty. South Sudan is joined at the most fragile end of the Index by countries that have long struggled, such as Somalia, Central African Republic, Sudan, and D.R. Congo. However, a lack of change at the most fragile end of the Index (not to mention a similar lack of change at the sustainable end of the Index) belies the significant movement of a number of countries over the past year and indeed the past decade.

Widespread Violence and Insecurity Strikes the Central African Republic

Published June 17, 2015 | By Nate Haken and Hannah Blyth

The Central African Republic (CAR) is a vast, beautiful land about the size of Texas, but with a fraction of its population. It is home to sprawling herds of forest elephants roaming the Dzanga-Ndoki national park along the Sangha River. Logging towns have sprung up where Muslim merchants sell bread and flip-flops. On the outskirts of town, Bayaka pygmies harvest honey, and play stringed instruments with their thumbs.

Arab Spring Turns to Winter for Much of Middle East, North Africa

Published June 17, 2015 | By Felipe Umaña

Only a few years ago, much of the Fragile States Index analysis was following the aftermath of the Arab Spring. At the time, there was significant hope for the future, as the despotic regime of Muammar Gaddafi fell in Libya, similarly undemocratic regimes collapsed in Egypt and Tunisia, and other countries hastily rushed through liberal, democratic reforms in the hopes of staving off their own demise. But fast forward only a few years, and (despite generally positive signs in Tunisia) most of that hope has evaporated. Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen — among the 2015 Index’s most high risk nations — have witnessed some of the most significant declines over the past year.

Beating the Odds: Nigeria Defies Predictions of Doom

Published June 17, 2015 | By Nate Haken

The world is not deterministic. People have a say. If ever there was any doubt, Nigeria belied that notion with elections in March and April of this year in which the sky did not fall as just about everybody feared it might. Yes, there were reports of rigging and violence at various levels. But cooler heads prevailed and Nigeria stepped away from the brink.

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