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Niger Delta Conflict Tracker 2016 Q2

Published September 12, 2016 | By Partners for Peace, Fund for Peace, PIND

This quarterly tracker looks at the trends and patterns of conflict risk factors and incidents of violence, and their pressures on peace and stability in the Niger Delta. It is not designed as a conflict analysis, but rather, it is intended to update stakeholders on patterns and trends in conflict risk and violence. Understanding the deeper conflict drivers, implications, and mitigating options requires a robust participatory, qualitative analysis of these trends by local stakeholders in affected communities, including women, traditional authorities, political leaders, youths, private sector actors, and others. We hope that these trackers provide such stakeholders with information to inform that process of analysis and joint planning to promote sustainable peace in the Niger Delta.

Voluntary Principles in Ghana: National Roundtable July 2016

Published August 31, 2016 | By J.J. Messner and Hannah Blyth

On the 28th July, 2016 the Fund For Peace (FFP) in partnership with the West Africa Network for Peace Building-Ghana (WANEP-Ghana), staged the first national VPs Roundtable in Accra. Staged as part of a program funded by the U.S. Department of State, this roundtable follows a series of local trainings and dialogues in four regions in Ghana over the past 12 months. The national event included representatives from four community areas affected by oil, gas and mining operations, including the Asutifi District in the Brong-Ahafo region, Adansi West District in the Ashanti region, the Talensi District in the Upper East region and six coastal Districts in the Western region.

Voluntary Principles in Ghana Update: April-June 2016

Published July 31, 2016 | By J.J. Messner and Hannah Blyth

FFP and WANEP-Ghana delivered local dialogues to discuss VPs-related issues in mining, and oil/gas affected communities. A total of 73 participants took part across the four regions including the Minerals Commission, the Ghana Police Service, Ghana Navy, the Commission on Human Rights and Administrative Justice (CHRAJ), traditional leadership, companies, local media (Ghana News Agency), the District/Metropolitan Assembly, Ghana National Petroleum Commission, private security providers, and religious bodies.

New Wave of Militancy in the Niger Delta

Published July 15, 2016 | By The Fund for Peace and Partnership Initiatives in the Niger Delta*

After the 2015 Presidential elections which saw a peaceful transition of power from incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan to General Mohammadu Buhari, many observers have rightfly expressed optimism for the future of Africa’s biggest economy. There is much to be optimistic about. For one, the Boko Haram counter-insurgency campaign has marked significant successes in the Northeast over the last year. However, by contrast in the Niger Delta region, communal, criminal, and election-related violence have been steadily rising. In fact, conflict-related incidents and fatalities in the Niger Delta were higher in the past six months than at any point since the end of the last wave of militancy in 2009.

Fragile States Index 2016: The Book

Published June 27, 2016 | By J.J. Messner, Nate Haken, et al.

The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

Europe’s Refugee Crisis Underscores Global Interconnectedness

Published June 27, 2016 | By J.J. Messner

As the civil war in Syria enters its sixth year, its effects continue to wreak havoc not only on its own war-ravaged population, but also upon countries farther afield. In the 2016 Fragile States Index, Syria was again one of the most worsened countries year-on-year, catapulting them into the list of the top ten most fragile countries on the planet. To date, thousands of Syrians have made treacherous and uncertain journeys across land and sea to the relative safety of Europe, and it is likely that many more will continue to do so. The countries of Europe – particularly those situated on a trajectory between Turkey and Germany and Scandinavia – have found themselves overwhelmed by the influx, and have responded to these pressures with attempts to close previously open borders. At the same time, ultra-nationalistic, right-wing, anti-immigrant political parties in multiple countries across the continent have taken the opportunity to politically manipulate the crisis and further destabilize domestic politics.

Underlying Concerns Create a Worrying Outlook Beyond Brexit

Published June 24, 2016 | By J. J. Messner

As the dust settles on the historic Brexit vote and its effects, it is easy to focus on the near term, visible side effects. Even in the unlikely event that Britain manages to negotiate an association deal that is as good as being in the European Union, it will now no longer have a voice in that Union. There are also murmurings of a second independence referendum that could see Scotland, which voted overwhelmingly to “Remain,” finally leave the United Kingdom and rejoin the European Union, thereby ripping Britain apart. Add to that the ramifications for Northern Ireland, or the renewed Spanish questioning of the sovereignty of Gibraltar. The immediate crash of the Pound and the FTSE forebode financial turmoil to come as trade between the UK and its neighbors is threatened with a significantly less liberal trading regime, which even in a best case scenario will see transfer costs increase. Further, there will be much uncertainty regarding the future ability of millions of British citizens to live and work easily across 27 other countries – or that of millions of Europeans who attend British universities or staff its hospitality, trade, and financial sectors.

Growing Insecurity in Rivers: Impacts of Re-Run Elections

Published June 14, 2016 | By The Fund for Peace and Partnership Initiatives in the Niger Delta*

Elections have been a cyclical driver of conflict risk and violence in Rivers state since 1999. The state was reported to have had the highest number of violent incidents during the 2015 general elections in Nigeria. In the lead-up and aftermath of the 2016 legislative election rerun on 19 March, Rivers was once again marred by widespread political and cult violence with fatalities in the lead-up surpassing any period since 2009. This ongoing cycle of insecurity is not only impacting the citizens of the state, but also business.

Niger Delta Conflict Tracker 2016 Q1

Published May 26, 2016 | By Partners for Peace, Fund for Peace, PIND

Violence has been increasing in the Niger Delta over the last several years. According to data formatted and integrated onto the Peace Map, in Quarter 1 of 2016, the number of fatalities reached the highest point since the end of the militancy, in late 2009. The conflict landscape in the Niger Delta is layered and complex, involving communal tensions, political competition, organised criminality, and resource-based conflicts; exemplified by militancy, piracy, cultism, election violence, armed robbery, kidnapping, and land disputes that differ from state to state and LGA to LGA. Data sources include ACLED (www.acleddata.com), Nigeria Watch (www.nigeriawatch.org), NSRP Sources (focused on violence against women and girls), as well as the IPDU SMS early warning system, and others.

Voluntary Principles in Ghana Update: January-March 2016

Published April 30, 2016 | By J.J. Messner and Hannah Blyth

The first local dialogue was held on February 22 in Bolgatanga, Upper East region. The dialogue, led by WANEP-Ghana, was attended by stakeholders including the Ghana Police Service, the Commission on Human Rights and Administrative Justice (CHRAJ), Traditional leadership, the Shanxii Mining Company, small scale mining groups, the Talensi and Nabdam District Assemblies, the local media (Ghana News Agency) and the Lands Commission.

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